Both Dow and rates climb, Fed considers more action

The Dow closed up 976 points today as investors (finally) reacted to worldwide government interventions to ease the crisis. This is the largest single day point gain, and the fourth largest when viewed as a percentage gain (11.1%). This of course follows a historic slide over the last week.

At the same time mortgage rates climbed further, up almost a full point since Thursday to around 6.875%. Though the stock market is now reacting to the Fed's recent moves, credit markets remain somewhat frozen.

The Fed is considering a less talked about provision in the bailout bill that allows it to pump money directly into banks for an equity share. Rather than buy up the mortgage backed securities that have unstable value, the Fed can pump money into the banks and credit market. An article in the Seattle Times does a good job of explaining the different strategies and benefits.

If Paulson pays banks exactly what their mortgages are worth, he will not increase banks' capital (or their lending ability) — he will merely convert one asset (mortgages) into another (cash), making no impact on the credit crisis. If, to protect taxpayers, he buys mortgages at lower prices than banks list them, banks will have to write down their capital and consequently contract lending — and the credit crisis will worsen. If Paulson overpays for mortgages, he may marginally augment bank capital, but also incur massive taxpayer losses when he later resells the mortgages at their real price.

The silver lining is a little-noticed provision in the bailout bill allowing Paulson — if he chooses — to buy ownership stakes in banks. According to Robert Johnson, the Senate Banking Committee's former chief economist, this would cost roughly $375 billion less than the mortgage-buying plan and, better yet, more aggressively attack the credit crisis.

Mortgages may be underpriced today, but they retain some value on banks' books. So rather than purchasing mortgages (a capital-neutral transaction), Paulson could buy bank stock, infusing banks with new capital on top of their mortgages. That would exponentially increase lending capacity, prevent taxpayers from buying toxic assets, give the public a share of future profits, and grant regulators ownership leverage to restructure bank management.

Full Article

Mortgage rates up sharply

The rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage shot up by over half a point overnight following the drop in the Federal Funds Rate.

The Federal Reserve has dropped the rate that banks lend to each other from 4.25% in January to 1.5% yesterday, trying to spur economic growth without increasing inflation. Yet mortgage rates have been (relatively) steady in the high 5% to low 6% range for most of the year.

This latest point drop had an effect opposite to what people may expect. Rates at one of our lenders shot up from 5.875% to 6.5% on the same 30 year fixed loan. The effect of lowering the Federal Funds Rate is more a long term economic fix, as it can take six months to increase borrowing. It is unusual to see such a dramatic jump in mortgage rates as a response. It is possible things may settle down in the next couple of days, but clearly lenders are not any more confident in the market, and credit (at this point) remains tight despite the Fed's actions.

The Fed drops the rate again

The Federal Reserve has dropped the Federal Funds rate by a half a point from 2% to 1.5%. This is one more response to the worsening economy and stock market.

As I said, I'm not sure how effective this will be in loosening the credit markets. The rate drop was matched by similar rate drops in the U.K., Canada, Sweden, Switzerland, China, Hong Kong and Australia over the past day, so with this world-wide coordinated effort there may at least be a psychological boost to the market.

Wall Street Journal

CNN Money

Bernanke speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke released a statement predicting that the global economy will be down well into 2009 and hinted at a possible future rate cut. The next scheduled meeting is October 28-29, but there is a possibility of an emergency meeting.

CNN story

I don't believe another rate cut is warranted at this point as it is not rates holding people back from borrowing money, but the banks refusal to make the loans in this uncertain climate. There are also less funds to loan with the collapse of the secondary mortgage market, further restricting banks ability to approve loans. Hopefully the Fed's plan to buy up short-term debt (as well as troubled mortgage backed securities) will help unfreeze the credit market.

Rates are still historically low, at least in the mortgage lending market.

More Federal Relief

On the heels of the passing of the $700 billion bailout plan, the Federal Reserve has expanded it's economic rescue plan and is planning on buying massive amounts of short term debt to try to unclog the credit markets.

Commercial paper is a way of borrowing money for short periods, typically ranging from overnight to less than a week.

In more normal times, about $100 billion of these short-term IOUs were outstanding at any given time, sold by companies to buyers that included money market mutual funds, pension funds and other investors. But this market has virtually dried up as investors have become too jittery to buy paper for longer than overnight or a couple of days.

The unstable situation has left many companies vulnerable. The notion under the plan is for the government to provide a "backstop" that would give companies a new place to get cash, the Fed said. The action makes the Fed a crucial source of credit for nonfinancial businesses in addition to commercial banks and investment firms.

Full Seattle Times Story

The FED drops both rates again

The Federal Reserve in an unscheduled meeting today dropped both the federal funds rate and the discount rate by 3/4 of a point. The federal funds rate (the rate many credit card and home equity rates are based on) now stands at 3.5%. There is speculation that the FED will drop rates again at their normal meeting on January 30th.

It is not clear what affect this will have on mortgage lending rates. As I have mentioned previously, lending rates follow the bond market, not the rise and fall of prime. The rate drop was primarily to ease concerns about a tight credit market for business and to probably to bolster the stock market. As of 4:30 east coast time, the DOW is down 128 points, and has dropped substantially in the last few days.

I don't know that this rate drop is a wise move. The U.S. (unfortunately) depends heavily on foriegn investors to sustain our spending. Lower rates will attract fewer investors, so that spigot of cash may be shut off. Our dollar is already weak in the world market, and a weakening dollar means any investment in U.S. dollars will be worth even less.

There are also significant inflationary pressures with rising fuel and food prices. The FED would typically raise rates to fight inflation, not lower them drastically as they have done today. It seems that the rate drop was simply to stop a panic in the stock market. I don't know that it will work, or if it is worth the risk as it may create much larger problems in the near future.

When the FED lowered the prime rate, why didn’t mortgage rates go down?

The Federal Reserve lowered the prime rate by .5 a point at their September 18th meeting. A major reason stated for lowering the prime rate was to prevent the mortgage market’s trouble from affecting the economy.

“…the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally. Today’s action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time.”

Their major concern is to protect the broader economy, not necessarily to save the real estate market. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I didn’t think that lowering interest rates would bring any new buyers into the market. As it turns out, lowering the prime rate didn’t produce a similar lowering of mortgage interest rates anyway.

Mortgage interest rates are not tied to the prime rate. They are more influenced by the bond market and inflation. The graph below shows how the rates have moved mostly unrelated over the past three years.


The immediate effect of lowering the prime rate is a drop in your credit card and home equity lines of credit rates. The drop in prime did little to lower mortgage rates, but they are still historically low. Lowering prime may help boost consumer confidence and might bring investors back, but if you’re waiting for them to drop prime again to get a better rate before buying a home, you may be waiting in vain.

More Hints from the FED

On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke to a group of economists and indicated that the FED wants to avoid bailing out investors from the consequences of their financial decisions. Investors scooped up mortgage backed securities at an incredible rate the last couple of years. Often these securities were backed by riskier subprime mortgages, and these more speculative investments are now losing value due to the subprime mortgage market’s fallout. Bernanke indicated that the FED stands ready to take action if the financial markets woes spread too far into the general economy, but his statement seems to indicate he is trying to avoid a cut in the federal funds rate at their next meeting on September 18th.

The Fed cuts one of the rates

The Federal Reserve cut their discount rate by half a point late last week, from 6.25% to 5.75%. The discount rate is the rate at which the Fed will loan directly to banks. They did not change the federal funds rate, which is the rate banks will lend to each other. This rate sits at 5.25% and is what prime (8.25%) is based on.

By lowering the discount rate, the Fed has tried in another way to infuse the lending industry with more liquidity. The Fed had already pumped billions of dollars into the banking system in the past two weeks. The rate drop came as a bit of a surprise, however, as there has not been a rate change between meeting dates since the week after September 11th 2001.

Their next meeting is scheduled for September 18th, and there is increased speculation that they will lower the federal funds rate. In a statement accompanying the rate decrease last week, the Fed indicated that they were now more concerned with adverse effects of market instability over their fears of inflation. This is a clear shift from their statement at their last meeting on August 7th.

The Fed steps in.

The turmoil in the subprime lending market continues to ripple through other markets. Though subprime loans are estimated to be only 13% of outstanding loans, and only 13% of those are late on their payments (1.7% of the total), investors are averse to the risk of possible loan defaults.

The Dow Jones industrial average has been erratic with triple digit swings in the past two weeks. A large French bank halted withdrawals from three investment funds that are tied to high-risk U.S. mortgage securities. They were unsure as to how to value the funds anymore. Commercial banks in Europe have been hesitant to loan to one another, causing short-term rates to rise. The Central Bank poured $130 billion into the banking system to shore up available funds, lower rates and calm investor fears. The U.S. Federal Reserve also injected $38 billion into our own banking system. They also allowed banks to use mortgage backed securities as collateral, attempting to show that these securities are still reliable. Speculation varies as to whether they will lower the federal funds rate at their next meeting.

Lenders are having trouble selling mortgage backed securities on the open market. By selling these bundled loan packages to investors, lenders get more funds to loan out. As fears of loan defaults grow, investors have stopped buying any loan packages that have any subprime loans in them. Many subprime lenders have gone out of business as they can no longer obtain new funding. Even prime lenders have tightened their guidelines significantly over the past month or so.

What does all this mean to you as the home buyer? Basically, it is more difficult to buy a home right now. There are fewer lenders and fewer loan programs to choose from. This is especially true for buyers looking for 100% financing. You must get a pre-approval ahead of time to be sure you can obtain financing before you bother to look for a home. It is even more important now to use an Integrated Agent to purchase your home. Your Integrated Agent will be intimately involved in both the real estate and the mortgage portion of your transaction. With the mortgage industry changing daily, you can’t afford to have any more uncertainty in your purchase.

Fed announces no change in federal funds rate

The Federal Reserve announced today that it will be leaving the federal funds rate at 5.25%. This is the ninth consecutive meeting where they have left the rate alone, after raising the rate in the previous 17 consecutive months.

“Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year. Financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks, credit conditions have become tighter for some households and businesses, and the housing correction is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters, supported by solid growth in employment and incomes and a robust global economy.

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months. However, a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated. Moreover, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.”

There had been speculation that the Fed would lower rates later this year as a reaction to the tightening of credit standards in the lending market. The above statement, though mentioning the credit issue, seems to indicate they are a bit more worried about inflationary pressures if they were to lower the rate. The bond market has indicated that mortgage rates may come down a bit, but it is difficult to predict with all that is going on related to the subprime market problems. Many lenders no longer exist, and remaining lenders have tightened criteria on loans, or eliminated programs altogether. Zero down programs still exist, but they are a bit harder to find and qualify for.